🧠 First quarter US GDP on track for negative growth by 1.5%, consumer spending and confidence falls

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🏛️ Financial News

• US GDP 🌐 US first quarter GDP on track for 1.5% negative growth, Atlanta Fed indicator says – CNBC: The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow tracker is indicating that US gross domestic product is on pace to shrink for Q1-2025. The loss of momentum appears to have persisted early this quarter amid cold temperatures and concerns that tariffs will hurt spending through higher prices.

• Consumer Report 🛒Fed’s favorite core inflation measure hits 2.6% in January, as expected – CNBC: The Fed’s preferred inflation indicator of longer-term trends – the personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index – increased 0.3% for the month and showed a 2.5% annual rate. While personal income rose 0.9% vs. expectations, higher incomes did not translate into spending.

• Consumer Report 🛍 US consumer spending posts first drop in almost two years – Reuters: US consumer spending fell for the first time in nearly two years in January and the goods trade deficit widened to a record high as businesses front-loaded imports to avoid tariffs, setting up the economy for weak growth or even a contraction this quarter.

• Consumer Sentiment 💸 February consumer confidence posts biggest drop since 2021 in latest sign of slowing economy – CNBC: The Consumer Confidence Index slipped to 98.3 for the month, down nearly 7% and below the Dow Jones forecast for 102.3 - the largest monthly drop since August 2021.

• US Tariffs 🏛️ Trump vows to slap 25% tariffs on the European Union – EuroNews: US President Donald Trump held the first Cabinet meeting of his second term, where he vowed to slap 25% tariffs on the European Union and claimed the bloc was "formed to screw US”.

• US Tariffs 🏛️ Trump tariffs will hit over $200 billion in U.S.-Canada-Mexico cross-border rail trade – CNBC: The U.S. freight rail industry handled an estimated $203.1 billion in cross-border trade between the U.S., Mexico and Canada in 2024, with jobs and economies in states including Texas, Illinois and California acutely exposed to trade impacts.

🌎 Global Markets

• Europe Markets 🏰 Commission holds fire on retaliation in face of latest Trump tariff threats – Reuters: Despite claiming that discussions with the US over trade are continuing on a high level, the European Commission has said it is ready to respond firmly if the tariffs announced by President Trump materialize.

• Trade Agreements 🕌 EU and India aim to sign a free trade agreement by year's end – CNBC: India and the EU seem determined to sign a major trade agreement by the end of the year. As Donald Trump threatens the European Union with new tariffs on goods, the EU is desperately seeking new trading partners, and India may be among the first following announcement on Friday that a free trade agreement would be signed by the end of the year.

• China Manufacturing ⛩️ China February manufacturing hits 3-month high, but US tariff war clouds outlook – CNBC: An official factory survey showed on Saturday China's manufacturing activity expanded at the fastest pace in three months in February as new orders and higher purchase volumes led to a solid rise in production.

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 📈 Stocks & ETFs

• $NVO 💊 Eli Lilly plans at least $27B in new U.S. manufacturing investments – CNBC: The pharmaceutical giant will build four new sites in the US and bring total US manufacturing investments to more than $50B in recent years, as demand for its weight loss and diabetes injections soars and the company develops new drugs.

• $WBD 📽 WBD adds 6.4M Max subscribers, forecasts 150M subs by end of 2026 – CNBC: Q4-24 revenue for the streaming segment, anchored by Max, totaled $2.65B, up 5% from $2.53B in the same quarter last year.

• $XYZ 💱 Block’s 28% plunge in February leads fintech sell-off due in part to troubling economic data – CNBC: Block, PayPal and Coinbase plummeted, in part due to troubling economic data and the drop in crypto prices. Block reported disappointing quarterly results, but PayPal and Coinbase shares fell even as earnings topped analysts’ estimates.

• 🧠 Upgrade your PortfolioGPT account for an ad-free experience with unlimited daily portfolio generations!

• Private Credit ETFs 🦈 📈 State Street, Apollo team up to launch first of its kind private credit ETF – CNBC: State Street’s SPDR SSGA Apollo IG Public & Private Credit ETF (PRIV) will invest at least 80% of its net assets in investment grade debt securities, including a combination of public credit and private credit.

• Leveraged ETFs 📉 Market volatility creating buzz for leveraged and inversed ETFs – CNBC: Leveraged and inverse ETFs give investors the opportunity to make monster long or short bets on the stock market’s direction.

🚀 Magnificent 7

• $NVDA🧇 Nvidia sales grow 78% on AI demand, company gives strong guidance – Fortune via Yahoo! Finance: The GPU maker reported Q4 earnings that beat expectations, as the company’s revenue in the quarter rose 78%. Full fiscal-year revenue rose 114% to $130.5B. The company Nvidia expects $43B in Q1-2025 revenue, plus or minus 2%, versus $41.78B analyst estimates.

  • Nvidia CEO Huang says AI has to do '100 times more' computation now than when ChatGPT was released

• $META 🤳 Meta is reportedly planning a standalone AI chatbot assistant app, Meta AI, – CNBC: In a bid to better compete with AI-powered chatbots like OpenAI’s ChatGPT and Google’s Gemini, Meta could launch a standalone Meta AI app as soon as the company’s next fiscal quarter (April-June). Meta AI is currently only available to users via a website and Meta’s family of apps, including Facebook and WhatsApp.

  • Meta announces experimental Aria Gen 2 research smart glasses

• $AAPL 📱 Apple to open AI server factory in Texas as part of $500 billion U.S. investment – CNBC: Apple plans to open a 250,000-square-foot AI server manufacturing facility in Houston, TX in 2026, part of a $500B investment in the U.S. over the next four years. In addition to the new Texas facility, Apple said it also plans to hire around 20,000 employees across the US over the period.

• $AMZN 🛒 Amazon touts its first quantum computing chip a week after Microsoft’s unveiling – CNBC: Amazon revealed its first chip for quantum computing, and said its design will help the online retailer build highly-efficient hardware systems. The company would like to eventually rent out access to quantum chips to third parties through its AWS cloud division.

• $TSLA 🔌 Tesla Sales Fall 45% in Europe Amid Musk’s Political Meddling – EuroNews: Elon Musk's involvement in politics may have weighed on Tesla's sales performance in Europe, with its share price sinking the most in the Magnificent Seven stocks this year.

• $GOOG 🔍 Google announces layoffs in its HR, cloud units as part of ongoing cost cuts – CNBC: Google parent Alphabet is offering buyouts to US-based employees, while laying off some employees in its cloud staff with plans to reinvest into critical sales and engineering roles. The cuts come after CFO Anat Ashkenazi said one of her top priorities would be to drive more cost-cutting as Google expands its spending on AI infrastructure in 2025.

🚀 Artificial Intelligence

• $DELL 🌐 Dell forecasts $15B of AI server sales this year – CNBC: Dell missed on sales but beat on earnings for the fourth quarter. The company said it sold about $10 billion of AI-optimized servers in its fiscal 2025, and expects to sell about $15 billion in AI system in the current year.

• $SNOW ❄️ Snowflake gains more than 4% on earnings beat as company expands AI push – CNBC: The data analytics firm posted robust Q4 results and upbeat guidance, in addition to an expanded partnership with Microsoft Azure to offer access to OpenAI models. Snowflake CEO Sridhar Ramaswamy called the company the “most consequential data and AI company in the world.”

• $SMCI 🗄️ Super Micro insiders dump millions worth of stock after getting the all-clear sign from Nasdaq on its financial filings – Fortune via Yahoo! Finance: Co-founder Sara Chiu-Chu Liu Liang, wife of CEO Charles Liang, offloaded all the stock she personally held in the company just days after Super Micro’s stock price rallied on the news the company had issued delinquent financial filings and was back in compliance with listing standards at Nasdaq.

💱 Crypto Currencies

• US Legislation 🏛️ Trump to host first White House crypto summit on March 7 – Wall CoinTelegraph: The White House will host the first Crypto Summit on March 7, bringing together industry leaders to discuss regulations, stablecoins and Bitcoin reserve legislation.

• Market Sentiment 📊  The Global Crypto Market Has Now Lost $1T in Value From Its Peak – Wall Street Journal via Yahoo! Finance: According to CoinMarketCap, the market value across the cryptocurrency world is $2.68T – down from a Dec. 17 peak of $3.72T. The pullback shows how some of the euphoria stoked by the prospect of a crypto-friendly administration under President Trump is dissipating. Still, bitcoin remains above its pre-election levels.

• Personal Finance 🧾 As the price of bitcoin falls, experts say to leverage this tax ‘loophole’ – CNBC: With the price of bitcoin down from a record high in January, there could be a chance to score a tax break. Investors may consider “tax-loss harvesting,” which allows you to offset profitable investments by selling declining assets. Currently, there’s also a special tax loophole for longer-term crypto investors.

🏖️ Retirement

• Social Security 🏛️ Social Security has never missed a payment. DOGE actions threaten ‘interruption of benefits,’ ex-agency head says – CNBC: The continuity of monthly checks for millions of Americans could be at risk following changes under the Trump administration, says former commissioner Martin O’Malley.

• Taxes 🧾 You can still lower your 2024 tax bill or boost your refund with three tax strategies – CNBC: After year-end, there are limited ways to lower your previous year’s tax bill, especially for W-2 workers. However, you have until the April 15 tax deadline to contribute to your health savings account, make a pre-tax IRA deposit or leverage a spousal IRA.

• 📧 Subscribe to Great Wealth Xfer Covering the global $84T wealth transfer from Boomers to Millennials and Gen Z. (Coming Soon)

We’ll be back next Saturday morning to recap the week’s financial news.

Thanks to The Rundown AI for sponsoring.

✨ Happy Unprompting,

Rawee
[email protected]

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